May 2026 — adaptability scenario
The same 160 May shipments, priced under two rate environments side by side: a no-change baseline (Peak fuel calibrated at 14% from history) and an announced Peak fuel-surcharge spike (14% → 19%). This is the test a trailing average fails: it is blind to a rate change that hasn't hit invoices yet. Freight Close applies the change as a scenario rate-source override, books it, and flags the divergence.
The takeaway
Adaptability is the one axis a trailing average structurally can't compete on.
Peak announces its fuel surcharge rising 14.0% → 19.0% for May — before a single invoice reflects it. A trailing average is blind to the announcement and would under-accrue by $5,561. Freight Close applies the announced rate as a scenario override (only fuel moves; base stays calibrated), books it, and raises a control flag so it's never silent — landing within 2.6% of actual.
No change (Peak fuel 14%)
Engine estimate vs simulated actual · Peak fuel 14.0%
| Carrier | Engine | Actual | Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak Logistics | $56,516.25 | $67,700.34 | $11,184.09 |
| Heartland Freight | $35,113.52 | $29,854.68 | -$5,258.84 |
| Coastal Express | $22,539.67 | $19,203.89 | -$3,335.78 |
| Total | $114,169.44 | $116,758.91 | $2,589.47 (+2.2%) |
Peak fuel surcharge spike (14% → 19%)
Engine estimate vs simulated actual · Peak fuel 19.0%
| Carrier | Engine | Actual | Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak Logistics | $58,979.94 | $70,671.40 | $11,691.46 |
| Heartland Freight | $35,113.52 | $29,854.68 | -$5,258.84 |
| Coastal Express | $22,539.67 | $19,203.89 | -$3,335.78 |
| Total | $116,633.13 | $119,729.97 | $3,096.84 (+2.6%) |