Denise comparison — the honest accuracy story
Denise is the prior manual process: a trailing-3-month average of actual invoiced per carrier. We hold ourselves to an honest standard and put every vs-Denise number here, on its own tab.
What this comparison does — and doesn't — claim
On out-of-sample percentage error, Denise's trailing average is hard to beat — she runs 8.3% MAPE to Freight Close's 15.0%, because a trailing average smooths the month-to-month rate/volume noise that per-shipment pricing cannot foresee. We do not claim to beat her headline error. Freight Close wins on the axes a trailing average can't touch: every dollar ties to a shipment (auditability) instead of a black-box average never tied to what shipped; it adapts to rate changes and new carriers (the May fuel-surcharge scenario) where a trailing average is structurally blind; it carries controls (validation, exceptions, materiality, divergence flags); it's repeatable by anyone; and it is near-unbiased (-0.2%) where Denise chronically under-accrues (-3.2%) — a bias that understates the P&L every period, while per-month noise averages out.
FreightClose vs Denise — April 2026
Denise's method applied to April: trailing 3-month average of actual invoiced (Jan–Mar 2026) per carrier. She has no April activity input, so her estimate cannot reflect April's shipment mix or the Apr-1 Heartland volume-tier reset.
| Carrier | FreightClose | Denise | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak Logistics | $30,948 | $34,406 | -$3,458 |
| Heartland Freight | $35,627 | $35,333 | +$293 |
| Coastal Express | $26,956 | $25,533 | +$1,422 |
| Total | $93,530 | $95,273 | -$1,743 |
The Heartland gap is the headline: April is the first month of Q2, so the volume-tier discount resets to 0%. Denise's trailing average still embeds Q1's discounted months, so she structurally under-accrues the reset — her worst historical miss (Jan −18.7%).
Closed months — engine vs Denise vs actual
The full three-way for each reconstructed historical month. Error % is signed vs actual invoiced; 'Closer' is whoever was nearer that month.
October is cold-start (printed-card priced, no prior history) — dimmed, and excluded from the head-to-head below.
| Month | Engine | Denise | Actual | Engine err | Denise err | Closer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 2025(cold start) | $83,874 | $81,434 | $88,638 | -5.4% | -8.1% | n/a |
| November 2025 | $98,579 | $84,479 | $88,745 | +11.1% | -4.8% | denise |
| December 2025 | $79,662 | $86,894 | $77,544 | +2.7% | +12.1% | engine |
| January 2026 | $83,886 | $84,976 | $97,996 | -14.4% | -13.3% | denise |
| February 2026 | $84,955 | $88,095 | $94,106 | -9.7% | -6.4% | denise |
| March 2026 | $103,276 | $89,882 | $93,717 | +10.2% | -4.1% | denise |
October is cold-start (no prior invoices to calibrate from) and excluded from the head-to-head, exactly as a trailing method has no first-month basis either. The neutral close loop — engine estimate vs actual + the true-up entry, with no Denise column — lives on the Closed Periods tab.
Ask FreightClose
Grounded Q&A — every figure is retrieved from the computed run, never generated. Not an LLM; it cannot hallucinate a number.
The April 2026 freight accrual is $93,530.38 (net of a -$287.03 credit reserve), booked under Accrued liability — expense recognition (matching principle) as Dr Freight Expense / Cr Accrued Freight Liability.
- Peak Logistics: $30,948.30 (40 shipments)
- Heartland Freight: $35,626.57 (65 shipments)
- Coastal Express: $26,955.51 (55 shipments)
Confidence range ±1σ: $85,937–$101,123.